Home | MAKUPFRONT: UP FRONT WITH ROBERT MAK

Long before election day, long before candidates even announce, the outcome of an election can be determined…by the map.

Where are the boundaries of a Congressional or legislative district?  Who’s included and who isn’t?  Does the district lean Democrat or Republican? 

With a wealth of data and weeks of public comment, four members of the Washington State Redistricting Commission today put out their proposals for redrawing our political districts.

As our state population has grown, the big job is adding a 10th Congressional district.  Other districts must shrink in size, and as a logistical matter, one or more Western Washington districts must stretch across the Cascades to Eastern Washington.

Two members of the commission are Republicans; two members are Democrats.  Three out of four must agree on a new map by the end of the year.  So here are their opening proposals.  Let the negotiations begin:

Democrat Tim Ceis creates a 10th Congressional District in Thurston and Pierce Counties.  Olympia Democrat Denny Heck, who’s looking to make a second run at Congress next year, would eagerly run for this district.

Ceis then pushes the 9th district north (incumbent Democrat Adam Smith), creating a majority-minority district through Federal Way, Tukwila and into South Seattle.  Many minority groups pushed for a minority district (where the majority of constituents are minorities), and three out of four commission members proposed some variation of this. 

Ceis’ plan creates a new 1st district that’s mainly rural, and pushes Republican Dave Reichert’s 8th district to the east to include Chelan and Kittitas counties.  All four proposals from commission members seem to put Reichert in a more rural, conservative district.  Democrat Rick Larsen in the 2nd district would probably not object to losing eastern parts of Snohomish County.

Note, big changes to how the 4th and 5th districts split Eastern Washington.

Democrat Dean Foster starts with a new 10th district that takes much of the Pacific Coast, currently represented by Democrat Norm Dicks.  Foster’s plan does not include a majority-minority district.

Foster’s 1st, 2nd and 8th district plans are pretty similar to Ceis.

Republican Tom Huff puts the 10th district in South Seattle and southern suburbs.  His 8th district stretches across the Cascades, but Reichert would keep parts of Bellevue and Redmond, which tend to be more swing. 

Not only would Chelan and Kittitas go into the 8th, Huff would slide the 3rd (Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler) to include Klickitat.  Combined with losing Thurston, this makes the 3rd a more conservative district.  Meanwhile, Democrats should benefit from the redrawn 2nd district, which loses many of the rural areas.

Under Huff’s plan, the 1st district also changes dramatically (Democrat Jay Inslee is not running for Congress again, so there’s no incumbent to consider).  Huff’s 1st district is a more rural conservative district.

Net effect:  Interesting trade-offs making some districts safer for Republicans, other safer for Democrats.

Republican Slade Gorton offers this solution:  He creates a majority-minority district in the South Seattle area, and then, creates a district going north to the Canadian border, picking up eastern Washington population in Okanogan, Chelan and Douglas.

At first glance, Gorton’s map looks radically different, but it its simplicity, it actually avoids significant changes to many districts. 

Consider these maps the opening bid for negotiations.  Republicans will likely balk at Ceis’ starting point of a 10th district in the Democratic-leaning Olympia area.  Democrats may balk at Gorton’s 10th district in the rural north. 

The redistricting commission must also redraw state legislative maps.

Fascinating process you see only once every ten years.  Admittedly, only political junkies may be watching, but this is where elections may be won or lost.